Sunday, February 14, 2010

Have any 6 consecutive numbers ever won a lottery?

Yesterday I spent all afternoon and evening writing an answer to a question (see post title) in the Collected Wisdom column in Saturday's Globe and Mail (which is my favourite column). The editor replied, calling my answer "quite wonderful," but asked me to simplify it, which I did. Here is my answer:

If X = 100,000 "pick 6 out of 49" lottery draws were held (say over 10 years), chances are 27 percent that at least one draw's winning numbers were consecutive. The chances of any given combination being composed of consecutive nos. is 1 in N = 317,814. You can verify this: (1 – 1/N)^X = (1 – 0.27). Assume in any given week there are 200 "pick 6" lottery draws around the world. Then in a decade there are approx. X = 100,000 draws: 200 draws/week x 50 weeks/year x 10 years. As for [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] ever winning a lottery somewhere, chances are roughly one percent over the past decade or so.

I will let you know if my answer is chosen (it would appear in next Saturday's Globe). I am having a depression-free long weekend. Last week I was depressed and had the flu for 2 days. The depression lifted on Friday after I made a breakthrough to end a logjam in my coding, enabling my coding of the SMS Client ID Changer to proceed once again. My boss is going to China on Tuesday for 3 weeks.

I wonder: can Vancouverites (and by extension Canadians) pull off a half-decent Olympic Games? Already 4 bad things have happened: not enough snow (just bad luck), one of four mechanical legs of the cauldron failed to rise up during the opening ceremony, there were violent street protests, and the Georgian luger was killed because the track is too fast. If we win at least one gold medal, all is forgiven.

I return to my Volunteer Computer Tutor job at Fred Victor Centre on Thursday (I quit Sound Times), just one afternoon per week. I will continue teaching my regular from Sound Times, Elaine, but now at Fred Victor. This month I must visit my Aunt Helen in the nursing home, inform companies about my new Visa info (it expires at the end of the month), and start to get my tax info together. I recently got a haircut and trimmed my beard. I only cut my hair about 3 times a year. I might email Mat Hopwood this weekend, asking him how his game engine is coming along, and letting him know that Pyxelation will now be open source (I won't pay him $8000). That's certainly a big saving. I dread having to get into the habit of flossing my teeth, as I am lazy (I see the dentist next Monday). I now return to my reading the Globe, and finishing my coffee. That's what my life's all about, for now.

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